Sounds a tad high. Mine is a 1984 with a 200 carbureted yammy. I think my hull weight is a bit less, although i have a 228, closed transom + bracket, so it might be close if this boat is a cut down transom version. I'd say I'm more around 4200 to get to 30mph. If he's swinging a 17 pitch 3 blade prop and doesn't have some odd amount of slip then it should be about the same. This also depends on the gear ratio of the lower unit. 200hp is adequate unless you're typically running with a very heavy load. I had 8 adults on mine last summer, planed off fine and got us where we were going. Wouldn't want to do it every time out though. Sure cut through the chop well with people sitting on the bow helping get the nose down!